My Bold Predictions for 2023

The EV industry has accomplished a lot in 2022 , but I'm betting 2023 will be even bigger.

Here’re a few big things that I’m betting will happen in 2023.

Tesla FSD Gets Ready for Prime Time

Yes, I think it’ll be ready for 99% of all Tesla owners to use at least in the US (with perhaps a few exceptions in certain tricky geographical areas).

Now, I’m not saying Robotaxi yet because that will require regulatory approvals, which could drag on for a while even if Tesla declares FSD is solved. However, I’m betting from the progress of monthly releases I’m seeing from Tesla over the past few months that FSD will be pretty much ready on 99% of the roads in the US. In certain states (California) where there has been more testing because of the abundance of Tesla owners, conditions would’ve been well tested and tuned towards Q3/Q4 of 2023. Why am I making such a bold prediction? Just look at how much progress was made from the beginning of 2022 to the most recent update. It was only in February 2022 that Tesla fully committed to a pure vision approach. In the latest update of 10.69.25 of FSD, many users have uploaded clips on Youtube showing FSD can confidently perform unprotected left turns, similar to a human driver.

FSD might not be perfect, but it does not have to be, as long as it can perform tasks as well as a decent human driver, with slightly higher safety ratings. In another word, FSD will feel awkward at times compared to a human driver, because it is a robot after all. However, as long as it can complete the same tasks that a human driver can perform in a drive, with slightly higher safety performance, it will be worth using more often than a human driver.

BYD Takes A Slight Lead in Global BEV Deliveries over Tesla

This should be an obvious one, it’s clear that BYD is on a clear trajectory to overtake Tesla in terms of BEV deliveries. BYD is even trying to get into a higher market with the “Yangwang “ model car lineup.

BYD is on track to deliver 800k+ BEVs for the year 2022, while Tesla is on track to deliver 1.2m+. So since Tesla’s guidance for 2023 is approximately 35% growth (1.62m), BYD will have to grow sales by at least 2x in order to take the lead from Tesla.

Judging from sales figures for BEV in China of BYD vs Tesla, it’s not hard to see that BYD is catching up really fast at a consistent pace. Also, BYD was able to grow more than 200% YoY for 2022. So with the Chinese supply constraints easing after the end of their Zero Covid policies, it’s very possible for BYD to increase its momentum in 2023. It’s a bold prediction though, I know.

First Tesla Cybertruck Rolls Off Production Line in June

This is probably my least confident prediction, not because I don’t think Tesla can deliver the Cybertruck in 2023, but because the timing I’m betting on (Q2 instead of Q3/Q4) will be a tricky one. However, what’s the fun if my prediction is not a bold one?

What’s my reasoning for this? Well, since the Cybertruck is the top anticipated EV model based on Google Searches, there are a lot of reasons for Tesla to deliver it asap. Further, both the new Global Head of Production from China as well as Elon Musk are spending a lot of time at Giga Texas. So you bet that the minions working at that factory will feel the pressure and motivation to make it happen sooner than later. But then again, this is just my wild guess, so don’t kill me for it if I’m wrong ;)